None of the current hybrids on the market make financial sense.
None.
Nor is there much of an environmental reason to choose a hybrid over an LEV-II, SULEV, or ULEV car, when you realize the extra environmental costs associated with the manufacture and eventual recycling of those hybrid battery packs.
I've done the math from time to time on hybrids, and I guess it's time to revisit that math to prove my point. I'll use the Accord as an example, comparing the hybrid Accord to both the 4-cylinder EX and the V6 EX models (both automatic):
Hybrid Accord
- Mileage: 25/34 city/highway (assume 29.5 mpg average for 50% city, 50% highway driving for the purpose of this illustration)
- Price: $30,990 MSRP
Accord EX 4 cylinder auto
- Mileage: 24/34 city/highway (29 mpg average)
- Price: $22,450 MSRP
Accord EX V6 auto
- Mileage: 20/29 city/highway (24.5 mpg average)
- Price: $27,300 MSRP
Test assumptions
- Annual miles driven: 15,000 miles per year
- Average fuel cost: $3.00 per gallon
Okay, I'll start with the most obvious comparo first, the 4cyl Accord versus the hybrid Accord. Assuming 15,000 miles per year @ $3.00 per gallon for cost, the annual fuel cost of the 4cyl Accord is $1551.72. The annual fuel cost for the hybrid Accord is $1525.42. The difference in MSRP between the two models is $8540. At that rate of gas savings, it would take you
324.7 YEARS to recoup the difference in MSRP. Or 4.87 million miles, whichever came first. :roll:
At $4.00/gallon, it takes a little less time... only 243.5 years, or 3.65 million miles.
At $5.00/gallon, we'll get there even faster - 194.8 years, or a mere 2.92 million miles. You great-great-great-great-great-great grandkids might finally benefit financially from your wise choice to buy hybrid.
Now, how about the hybrid versus the V6 Accord? After all, the V6 Accord is more expensive, and gets worse fuel economy, which should make the hybrid more competitive, right? Well, yes... but it still doesn't make it a great choice. Here are the numbers for the hybrid vs. V6 matchup:
At $3.00/gallon, you can recoup the additional MSRP of the hybrid in 177,797 miles, or 11.9 years. Hey, you might actually live long enough to see the benefit of this choice. But do you tend to keep cars this long?
At $4.00/gallon, the breakeven point is 133,347 miles, or 8.9 years. At $5.00/gallon, the breakeven point is 106,678 miles, or 7.1 years.
Keep in mind that the above calculations are based on fuel costs and MSRP only. The purchase price of the vehicle, the maintenance costs of the vehicle (think a complex hybrid and the associated hardware - inculding the battery pack - will be as cheap to own and maintain as a conventional car over 100,000+ miles?), and any tax incentives for hybrids are not taken into account in the above calculations.
So what have we learned? If fuel economy and saving money is your highest priority, the 4cyl Accord is a no-brainer. Not only does it get similar mileage ot the hybrid Accord, but it costs a
lot less. Enough less that you'd never be able to justify stepping "up" to a hybrid Accord on potential fuel savings cost alone.
The decision to buy a hybrid over a V6 Accord is a little murkier. At current gas prices, you'd have to own and drive that Hybrid for a long time (177,797 miles) before you broke even. That's assuming the hybrid doesn't cost you any more to own. That's not a gamble I'd be willing to make, considering the finite lifespan of those rechargeable battery packs and their replacement cost. Oh, and one thing the greenies won't tell you? Over their lifetime those battery packs - just like the ones in your cordless razor or drill - will weaken. Guess what happens to your hybridized fuel economy as the batteries get weaker? That's right, it gets worse. :wink:
The only way that a hybrid Accord makes financial sense if if you're willing to keep the car long term, and you're also willing to bet on much higher gas prices on average during the ownership duration. Even then, you have to be willing to bet that the additional maintenance and ownership costs of the hybrid don't erode that margin over 100,000+ miles.
Good luck with that.
